EB-2 NIW in 2024: 43% Approval Rate and Trends for 2026

The official data published by USCIS for fiscal year 2024 provides a detailed picture of the current state of the EB-2 National Interest Waiver queue. The category — which allows self-petition by professionals with advanced degrees whose work serves the national interest of the United States — went through a period of stricter scrutiny and a significant backlog of pending petitions. Understanding these numbers helps those building their 2026 immigration strategy calibrate expectations, choose the right filing window, and strengthen the evidence presented.

The 2024 Numbers in Perspective

According to the quarterly reports consolidated by USCIS for fiscal year 2024, the EB-2 NIW category recorded:

• 63,549 I-140 petitions received;
• 27,526 approvals, equivalent to 43% of receipts;
• 11,256 denials, or 18% of receipts;
• 44,093 petitions pending at the end of the fiscal year, reflecting cases carried over from the prior year combined with new filings.

The percentages do not add up to one hundred because cases pending from prior fiscal years are also decided during the current period, and some cases received in 2024 will only be adjudicated in 2025 or later. Even so, the overall picture is clear: approvals accelerated in volume, but denials roughly doubled in proportional pace compared to the 2022–2023 biennium.

Why Scrutiny Tightened

Two developments explain the increase in scrutiny. The first is the effect of the policy update that USCIS published in the USCIS Policy Manual, Volume 6, Part F, Chapter 5, in 2023, with further refinements in 2024. The text reinforced requirements for STEM professionals, entrepreneurs, and applicants without a master’s degree. Adjudicators began requiring more granular evidence about the proposed endeavor, its national importance, execution viability, and why waiving the job offer requirement benefits the United States.

The second development is the filing boom that followed the reopening of Premium Processing for EB-2 NIW in 2023. Professionals who had delayed their petitions began submitting all at once, expanding the base of cases under review without a proportional increase in adjudicators. The result: more Requests for Evidence, more denials, and a growing backlog.

The spike in pending cases — from 22,756 at the end of the first quarter of 2024 to 44,093 at the end of the fourth — is consistent with this hypothesis. Each RFE adds an average of 87 business days to processing time, according to processing time metrics published by USCIS.

Breakdown by Country of Birth

The distribution of petitions by country of birth reveals important patterns:

The most telling figure for Brazilian applicants is the 15% approval rate for Brazilian nationals relative to the volume received that year. Even accounting for the fact that petitions pending from 2023 were still being adjudicated, the number falls significantly below China and Iran. The most likely explanation combines two factors: many Brazilians file with strong professional profiles but weak national importance arguments; and part of the volume comes from templated filings with generic Reference Letters and repetitive evidence.

The Weight of the Country Queue

Another important element is Visa Bulletin retrogression. For Indian and Chinese nationals, the EB-2 category has retrogressed by several years, delaying the I-485 and green card issuance even after an approved I-140. For Brazilians, the EB-2 category has remained current or near-current in recent Visa Bulletin editions, allowing consular processing or adjustment of status shortly after I-140 approval. This is a concrete advantage: while Indian and Chinese nationals wait over a decade, Brazilians can complete the cycle in months.

Breakdown by State of Residence

Geography also plays a role. The five highest-volume states were:

• California: 2,864 received, 761 approved, rate of 27%;
• Texas: 2,059 received, 660 approved, rate of 32%;
• New York: 2,054 received, 336 approved, rate of 16%;
• Florida: 1,433 received, 325 approved, rate of 23%;
• International filings, with residence outside the U.S.: 2,696 received, 549 approved, rate of 20%.

New York stands out for the combination of high volume and low approval rate. Texas performs positively. Filings made from abroad, common among professionals who still reside in their home countries, land at a moderate level.

Lessons from the Most Common RFEs

The number-one reason for RFEs in EB-2 NIW cases remains the national importance of the proposed endeavor. The second most common reason is the failure to demonstrate that the petitioner is well-positioned to carry out the proposed work. The third reason is a weak balance-of-factors argument — in other words, why waiving the job offer and labor certification requirements benefits the United States.

RFEs regarding advanced degree or exceptional ability are a minority, indicating that this pillar is usually well documented. The problem is concentrated in the three prongs of the Matter of Dhanasar precedent, decided by the AAO in 2016.

Recommendations for Petitions Filed in 2026

Those currently building their petition can draw four lessons from the data:

1. Deepen the national importance prong. Connect your work to federal reports and publications from agencies such as NIH, NSF, DOE, DHS, and NASA, and explicitly cite strategic goals such as national security, economic competitiveness, energy, and public health.
2. Invest in track-record evidence. Impact metrics, independent citations, media coverage, awards, papers in high-impact journals, adoption of your work by third parties, and relevant contracts build the second prong.
3. Customize the Reference Letters. Generic letters sharing the same structure and language have become a known marker for adjudicators. Each letter should address a distinct aspect of the petitioner’s contributions.
4. Use Premium Processing strategically. The current fee of $2,805 with a 45-business-day timeframe helps when the I-485 schedule is tight, but it does not replace evidence quality. Weak petitions filed with Premium Processing are still denied or receive RFEs.

What separated approved petitions from denied ones in 2024 was not luck or speed. It was the depth of the evidence presented at initial submission and the clarity of the legal narrative connecting the petitioner’s profile to the national interest of the United States.

Victoria Harper

Editor-in-Chief

Meet the author

Leading journalism and editorial content at Visto n’ Visa, Victoria helps make immigration topics clear, trustworthy, and easy to understand. Her focus is on delivering useful, human, and relevant content for people exploring new paths abroad.