EB-2 Approval Rates by Country: Why Brazil Has Fallen Behind

When discussing the EB-2 Green Card and EB-2 NIW, approval rates are the metric that most influences applicants’ decisions. Official figures published by USCIS reveal a surprising picture: while India, China, the Philippines, and Nigeria have maintained consistently high approval rates over the past decade, Brazil followed the opposite path and became the only country with a persistent downward trend. Understanding this divergence is essential for anyone planning to file a petition in 2026.

What USCIS Publishes and Why It Matters

USCIS periodically releases approval data by Green Card category in its quarterly immigration reports. For the EB-2 category, the breakdown by country of birth focuses on five high-volume markets: India, China, the Philippines, Brazil, and Nigeria. This data does not separate EB-2 NIW cases from conventional PERM-based petitions, but it is the best aggregate indicator of each nationality’s performance in the category.

For Brazilian readers, this breakdown matters because it allows a comparison of Brazil’s performance against much larger, historically more established markets. The analysis below covers 2014–2024, with the caveat that 2024 figures available in the original source included only the first through third fiscal quarters; consolidated 2024 data and partial 2025 figures may adjust the final reading.

How Each Country Performed Over a Decade

India: Rising Trajectory

India began the decade with approval rates around 92.9% in 2014 and closed the period at over 99% in 2024. Petition volumes are disproportionately high: the country surpassed 25,000 cases per year in every year analyzed, reaching approximately 50,808 in 2016. High rates combined with a robust sample make the data especially reliable.

China: Stability at the Top

China fluctuated between 96.7% and 97.9% throughout the decade, with volumes ranging from 4,000 to 13,000 cases per year. High stability combined with a significant petition base indicates a mature preparation process, with well-established sponsoring firms and companies.

The Philippines: Low Volume, Decent Rate

The Philippines ranged from 76.6% to 95.8%, with considerably lower volume — between 258 and 1,411 cases per year. Small sample sizes amplify year-to-year variations, so part of the volatility reflects sample size rather than a genuine shift in petition quality.

Nigeria: Fluctuation on a Mid-High Plateau

Nigeria fell between 79.3% and 91.1%, with volume growing from 264 to 3,411 cases per year over the decade, reflecting a significant increase in applicants from that country.

Brazil: The Troubling Anomaly

Brazil experienced two distinct phases. Between 2014 and 2017, it maintained approval rates between 88.8% and 95.8%, shoulder-to-shoulder with the other countries. Starting in 2018, the curve reversed: it dropped to 70.7% in 2018, hit a low of 57.4% in 2023, and saw a slight recovery to 64.7% in 2024. During the same period, the volume of Brazilian cases grew sharply, jumping from 363 in 2014 to 6,870 in 2023.

Why Brazil’s Curve Dropped

The combination of two factors explains most of the decline. First, the surge of Brazilian applications beginning in 2018 attracted a wave of service providers who pushed the category with generic petitions, copied business plans, non-standard recommendation letters, and professional profiles that did not meet the advanced degree or exceptional ability qualification criteria. Poorly prepared petitions drive up denial rates.

Second, USCIS tightened its review standards for nationalities with sharp volume increases. This is a historical pattern in categories perceived as saturated: adjudicators begin applying the Dhanasar framework with stricter interpretation, require more robust evidence, and issue more Requests for Evidence. Brazilians who filed generic petitions bore the direct impact of this tightening.

What This Does Not Mean

Aggregate data does not represent an individual applicant’s probability of approval. A well-built Brazilian petition — with a specific endeavor, robust documentary evidence, and high-caliber peer recommendation letters — continues to achieve approval rates comparable to countries like China and India. The national rate reflects the full pool of petitions filed, including poorly prepared ones.

Practical Implications for 2026

Those planning to file an EB-2 NIW petition as a Brazilian-born applicant need to internalize this reading: the average Brazilian petition is insufficient. Investing more time in choosing the right endeavor, building a solid technical plan, recruiting strong recommendation letters, and curating evidence has become mandatory. Petitions submitted under tight deadlines, without thorough technical and legal review, perform worse than the global average.

Another point: the drop in approval rates coincides with visa bulletin retrogression for EB-2 applicants born in Brazil. Even approved petitions eventually face a waiting line for Green Card issuance. Realistic planning integrates both indicators — petition quality and the Final Action Date — to estimate the total cost and timeline of the strategy.

How to Read Statistical Data Without Illusion

Aggregate statistics help identify trends and calibrate expectations. They do not substitute an individual eligibility analysis, nor do they guarantee or doom any specific case. An applicant who decides to pursue the NIW route based solely on historical approval rates runs two risks: overestimating the odds by looking at India or China, and underestimating viability by looking only at Brazil. An honest reading requires cross-referencing the national trend, the applicant’s personal profile, and the quality of the proposed petition.

Victoria Harper

Editor-in-Chief

Meet the author

Leading journalism and editorial content at Visto n’ Visa, Victoria helps make immigration topics clear, trustworthy, and easy to understand. Her focus is on delivering useful, human, and relevant content for people exploring new paths abroad.