EB-1A and EB-2 NIW: Approvals Drop in Q1 2026

USCIS has released employment-based permanent residency approval data for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, and the message is clear: two of the routes most sought after by skilled professionals, EB-1A and EB-2 NIW, are facing the toughest scrutiny in recent years. Compared to fiscal year 2025, both categories saw a sharp drop in approval rates, now below 50%. For anyone planning to file a petition, understanding what is behind these numbers is essential before building the case.

What the I-140 Data Reveals

Form I-140 is the petition that initiates most employment-based green card categories. The table below consolidates approvals and denials for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, by subcategory, along with the corresponding approval rate.

The contrast within the table itself is revealing: while categories such as EB-3 and advanced degree professionals exceed 98% approval, EB-1A and EB-2 NIW sit isolated at the bottom of the ranking, both below 48%.

EB-1A Sees a Sharp Decline

EB-1A, reserved for individuals with extraordinary ability in science, arts, education, business, or athletics, saw its approval rate plunge from 66.91% in fiscal year 2025 to 47.45% in the first quarter of 2026, a drop of nearly 20 percentage points in just a few months. In practice, more than half of the petitions reviewed during the period were denied, a result once unthinkable for a category historically regarded as the most prestigious in the employment-based system.

This fluctuation is nothing new. After hovering around 70% in 2023 and declining in 2024, the rate saw a brief recovery in early 2025 before falling again. The pattern suggests that the evaluation standard has become stricter and less predictable.

EB-2 NIW Under a New Standard

EB-2 NIW, the National Interest Waiver that waives the job offer and labor certification requirements, also tightened: the rate dropped from 55.17% in fiscal year 2025 to 42.61% in the first quarter of 2026. This is the lowest approval rate among all employment-based green card subcategories for the period, even lower than EB-1A itself.

The shift has less to do with the text of the law and more with how USCIS interprets what serves the national interest. Under the framework established in Matter of Dhanasar, officers now require measurable, documented impact within the United States, giving less weight to future potential or generic influence within an industry.

Why Scrutiny Has Increased

The explanation starts with demand. In recent years, petition volume has surged. In EB-2 NIW alone, there were 21,973 filings in fiscal year 2022 compared to 66,276 in fiscal year 2025, a jump of nearly 200% in three years. Faced with this surge, adjudicators have applied stricter standards, frequently relying on what is known as the final merits determination.

This mechanism allows the officer, even when the petitioner meets the minimum objective criteria, to make a final, discretionary judgment on the overall merits of the case. In other words, meeting the checklist no longer guarantees approval. The result is a more subjective assessment that, for many applicants, is also more unpredictable.

A Message From the Courts

This increased rigor has not gone unnoticed by the judiciary. In January 2026, in Mukherji v. Miller, a federal district court in Nebraska vacated the denial of an EB-1A petition and ordered USCIS to approve it, finding that the final merits determination had been created without proper legal authority and applied arbitrarily. The ruling is binding only in that specific case, but it serves as persuasive precedent and signals that poorly reasoned denials can be challenged in court.

How to Strengthen Your Petition

In a landscape where approval rates fall below 50%, the quality of documentation makes all the difference. A few precautions carry extra weight right now:

• Document measurable impact: citations, third-party adoption of your work, concrete and verifiable results, not just promises of future contribution.
• Treat the objective criteria as a starting point, not a finish line, building a narrative that supports the overall merits of the case.
• Gather specific, independent recommendation letters that explain why your work serves the national interest of the United States.
• Anticipate possible Requests for Evidence (RFEs) and respond quickly and thoroughly.
• If a denial seems arbitrary, remember that the judicial route has already proven to be a viable path for review.

The numbers from the first quarter of 2026 do not diminish the value of EB-1A and EB-2 NIW, but they do change the strategy: filing today requires a more robust dossier, concrete data, and a careful reading of how USCIS has been interpreting the merits of each case.

About the author

Victoria Harper

Editor-in-Chief

Meet the author

As a journalist and lead editor at Visto n’ Visa, Victoria helps ensure that immigration topics are covered in a clear, trustworthy, and easy-to-understand way. Her focus is on delivering useful, human, and relevant content for people exploring new paths abroad.